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Political scientist Muzzio also has doubts that the term limits issue will doom incumbents to defeat in the fall. "My gut tells me that it's not salient enough for people to be prime voting issue, or a motivating issue," he says.

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Jarrett Murphy
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Elsewhere in Queens, incumbents James Sanders and Eric Ulrich are facing serious challengers. One of Sanders' rivals is Marquez Claxton, a retired police detective and co-founder of 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care. Ulrich is a target of Democrats who think he got lucky as a Republican in the special election, where standard party labels aren't allowed to be used. His challenger, former Addabbo aide Frank Galluscio, was knocked off the February special election ballot.

Who will pull the lever?

If historical patterns continue, most of the incumbents mentioned here will hang on to their seats. In 2005, only one incumbent—Allan Jennings—lost his re-election bid. He had been at the center of a sexual harassment scandal. In the seven citywide Council elections since 1988, never have more than two sitting Council members lost their seats, and even that hasn't happened since 1993.

But this year could be different. One reason: money. In 2005, the average incumbent raised $4.80 for every dollar that the average non-incumbents raised. So far in 2009, that advantage is down to about $3.50. Overall, incumbents have raised only 38 percent of the total fundraising haul this year, compared to 58 percent for the full 2005 campaign season. The sheer number of candidates trolling for dollars in a weak economy has made it harder than usual for some incumbents—many of whom joined the race late because they expected to be term-limited out of office—to fill up their war chests.

If money is short, will voters be scarce too? Turnout, says Muzzio, is the all-important factor in council races. There is a Democratic primary for mayor, but polls predict a one-sided win by Comptroller William Thompson over Councilman Tony Avella. Competitive races for comptroller and public advocate could draw some voters. "Does that drum up enough folks who aren’t going to vote because there's nothing at the top of the ticket? I don't know," Muzzio says. "The lower the turnout, the more organization and get-out-the-vote are determinative."

Whether to gather dollars or motivate votes, there is not much time left for candidates in the September 15th primary. As of August 3, there were a mere 43 days until the vote.

- Jarrett Murphy

For more about City Council's role, impact and history, read the Spring 2009 issue of City Limits Investigates, The Chamber.