Unlike so many other charts of economic indicators over the past two years, there is no post-Lehman plunge. Instead, the line—marking the number of city public assistance recipients who've reported finding at least half-time work each month over the past four years—bounces up and down, but is remarkably steady: The number of New Yorkers who left welfare for work in December 2009 was actually higher than in December 2006, when the city unemployment rate was a record low 4.3 percent.
City Limits Magazine
May 2010:
The Black Depression
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Author
Neil deMause
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The reality, according to HRA deputy commissioner Seth Diamond, is far simpler: There may be fewer jobs overall, but some sectors are still hiring. "I think it reflects very strongly the strength of the city's entry-level economy," he says. "The city is not just one economic structure. Some of the industries that have withstood the economy best, like health care and education, are areas where we are able to place people."
Figures supplied by HRA to City Limits showing job placement in 2009 by job sector bear Diamond's claim out. The most common positions by far are in sales (13.1 percent), home health services (12.1 percent), food services (7.9 percent), and child care (7.5 percent). Projections by the Independent Budget Office in its latest city budget analysis concur: The only industries that will have recovered to their 2008 employment levels by 2013, according to the IBO, are health care, education, and leisure and hospitality—all heavy in the kind of low-skilled, entry-wage work that welfare-to-work programs have typically relied on.
Still, says Rebecca Brown Cesarani of the New York City Employment and Training Coalition, an umbrella group representing city workforce development agencies, placing people in jobs has "absolutely" become more difficult since the economic crash. "We haven't done a survey since [the start of] 2009, and that's when things really started to turn south. But word of mouth is, yes, it is getting harder."
That's certainly the story at Seedco, a coalition member that has several job training contracts with HRA, as well as operating Manhattan's Workforce1 Career Center under a contract with the Department of Small Business Services. "It's not that there are no jobs in New York, there are just different jobs," says Seedco senior vice president Francine Delgado. And in many cases, "different" means "worse."
And in many cases, different means worse. While Diamond may be correct that there are still entry-level jobs available, "entry level" is increasingly being defined downwards, according to job placement professionals.
"We've historically done a good job of placing people in full-time jobs, meaning 30 hours or more," says Delgado. "And there's a lot less of that these days." In addition, she says, even fewer employers than usual are providing benefits. As a result, Seedco has had to devote more time to helping its clients access public benefits—primarily food stamps, Medicaid, and the earned income tax credit—that they can use to supplement their limited incomes.
