Though Opportunity NYC ends in September, the data gathering will continue: Last month's MDRC report didn't even have full data for the second year, and tracking will continue for two years after families have left the program. (MDRC doesn't plan to release its next comprehensive report for "a couple of years," says Riccio, though there may be interim memos in the meantime.)
"I think that as families learn more about the offer, and about what they might be able to do to earn the rewards, and make adaptations in their lives to take advantage of them, you might see a bigger response," Riccio says. "I mean, that's a hypothesis—we have no idea."
If so, there's a chance that conditional cash transfers could be revived: Scaperotti says that the mayor's Center on Economic Opportunities, "in partnership with MDRC and several other cities, is considering a second-generation pilot program, which would be informed by lessons learned to date." However, she adds, any such effort would focus on whether such a program could "succeed in other locations"—meaning that if Bloomberg's grand experiment is to continue, it will likely be on some other city's watch.
