During the weekend of August 7, at least 20 people were shot in the five boroughs, including those hit at the Harlem block party that left cops and civilians wounded and one man dead.
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Indeed, guns kill people, because people with guns kill people. But just a few months ago the administration was pointing to indicators--like the number of "crime guns" seized in the city--that suggest the police are having more success at keeping illegal guns out. Illegal guns are still here, but that's not new.
The increase in the city's murder count has actually slowed during the summer. And many parts of the city are seeing not rising but falling numbers of killings. But the uptick is undeniable. So, what's behind this year's crime surge besides the mere availability of guns?
Potential explanations abound. There are fewer cops on the street (about 8,000 fewer than in 2000). There's the economy: The city has boasted of having broken the link between economic stagnation and crime, and the recession was shorter for New York than for the rest of the country, but some neighborhoods are still suffering.
Then there's the heat.
The summer of 2010 has been hotter than average, and there is substantial research linking heat to increased violence. Craig A. Anderson, a psychology professor at Iowa State University and one of the foremost experts on the subject, has written that, "There are about 2.6 percent more murders and assults in the United States during the summer than other seasons of the year; hot summers produce a bigger increase in violence than cooler summers; and violence rates are higher in hotter years than in cooler years."
The homicide database created by The New York Times indicates that from 2003 to 2009, 10 percent of all killings in the city took place in July, a greater share than any other month. January, February and March each accounted for only 7 percent of murders. Research out of Kent State University suggests the heat effect is greatest in the midday and early evening hours.
Of course, heat isn't the only thing that makes summer different from other times of year. People change their routines--kids are out of school, and everyone spends more time outside, so folks live in less structured environments where strangers and enemies are more likely to meet and hurt each other.
Anderson's research finds that even when you control for changes in routine, the summer sees more violent crime (some studies say property crime also increases).
But crime doesn't necessarily keep rising as temperatures rise. There's evidence that once temperatures hit a certain point, crime starts to decline. In crude terms, it gets too hot to commit crimes--or at least to stay out doors where some crimes are more likely to occur. This is called "negative affect escape," and there's a lot of debate about whether it actually occurs.
